Parliamentary elections as a prologue to the presidential race: what Cypriot sentiment shows

A new poll conducted by Noverna Analytics for Politis paints a rather alarming yet tellingly mature picture of public sentiment in the Republic of Cyprus. Formally about parliamentary elections, in the eyes of voters they are increasingly becoming something more — a kind of dress rehearsal for the 2028 presidential campaign.

Elections without illusions: Parliament as a 'qualifying round'

One of the key findings is a shift in the perception of the elections themselves. For a significant part of society, the parliamentary campaign is losing its independent value and becoming a tool for evaluating future contenders for the highest state office.

This approach speaks to a high degree of political pragmatism among voters, but simultaneously to a deficit of trust in the current political system. The results are expected not just to determine the composition of parliament, but to 'legitimize or undermine' the chances of future presidential candidates.

How are political leaders rated in Cyprus?

Poll data shows an acute lack of trust on the island, with none of the potential candidates demonstrating a steady positive rating. Looking at individuals, the picture is even more revealing:

• Nikos Christodoulides — 30% positive vs 60% negative.
• Odysseas Michaelides — 29% vs 54%.
• Andreas Mavroyiannis — 27% vs 57%.
• Annita Demetriou — 26% vs 64%.

Even more experienced or well-known figures like Averof Neofytou and Irene Charalambides face the same phenomenon: rejection levels exceeding 60%. Political scientists usually call this 'negative consolidation' — when voters are united more by distrust of everyone than by support for someone specific.

Party leaders: even deeper in the red

The assessment of party leaders is even harsher:

• Stefanos Stefanou — 17% positive and 72% negative reviews;
• Christos Christou — 14% vs 77%.

The study authors directly call this a 'pervasive deficit of political acceptance.' In other words, the crisis of confidence is systemic rather than personal.

Government policy: low marks across the board

Dissatisfaction extends to specific government actions. Approval ratings remain low in almost all key areas: the fight against the foot-and-mouth disease outbreak — only 24% approval; defense policy — 23%; support for livestock farmers — only 6% consider the measures 'very adequate.'

Such figures point not just to criticism of individual decisions, but to a sense of overall government inefficiency.

What are the main risks worrying residents in Cyprus?

Economic instability and external geopolitical threats remain the primary sources of anxiety. 72% of respondents expressed strong concern over rising electricity and fuel prices linked to regional tensions (specifically the conflict involving the US, Israel, and Iran).

Additional anxiety factors:

• Tourism — about 40% concerned;
• Migration flows — also about 40%.

Interestingly, age analysis shows differences in priorities: older groups worry more about prices and tourism, while those aged 55–64 are more concerned about security than others.

Electoral uncertainty and fragmentation

About a quarter of voters remain either undecided or inclined not to vote. Notably, most of them previously supported the traditional major parties — DISY and AKEL. This may indicate a gradual erosion of their electoral base.

The party landscape also promises no stability:

1. DISY and AKEL are running neck and neck;
2. ELAM is establishing itself in third place;
3. New and small parties are strengthening their positions.

Parliament is expected to remain fragmented: six or more parties, with the largest faction potentially holding only about 13 seats.

The result: a society without a center of gravity

The main takeaway from the poll is that Cyprus is entering a period of political uncertainty without clear leaders or a stable public consensus. Voters do not trust politicians, are skeptical of government actions, worried about the economy, and increasingly vote 'against' rather than 'for.'

Under these conditions, parliamentary elections on the island truly become more than just another cycle; they are a vital indicator of whether a new center of political gravity or an undisputed leader will emerge, or if the crisis of trust will only deepen by 2028.

Key takeaways:

• Parliamentary elections are seen as a rehearsal for the 2028 presidential race.
• All leading politicians have higher anti-ratings than support ratings.
• The main focus of public anxiety is energy prices and external security.
• Electoral fragmentation and distrust of traditional parties (DISY, AKEL) are growing.